2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Akron @ Central Michigan
Predicted scoreLean
Akron
22.2
Central Michigan
29.7
Central Michigan win probability: 68%
Margin (Central Michigan − Akron): 7.5 (80% range -13 to 28)
Total: 51.9 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Akron 17 – Central Michigan 41 (margin error 16.5, total error 6.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:00 PM | 6.8 | 50.7 | 66% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:05 PM | 6.8 | 50.7 | 66% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:44 PM | 6.8 | 50.7 | 66% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:03 AM | 6.8 | 50.7 | 66% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:10 PM | 6.8 | 50.7 | 66% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:35 PM | 6.7 | 50.2 | 66% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:54 PM | 3.2 | 52.7 | 58% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:09 PM | 2.5 | 52.1 | 56% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:33 PM | 2.6 | 52.1 | 56% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:09 AM | 2.8 | 52.1 | 57% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:47 PM | 2.8 | 52.1 | 57% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:25 PM | 7.5 | 51.9 | 68% |