2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Akron @ Central Michigan
Predicted scoreLean
Akron
22.0
Central Michigan
28.7
Central Michigan win probability: 66%
Margin (Central Michigan − Akron): 6.8 (80% range -13 to 27)
Total: 50.7 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.83% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.79% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:00 PM | 6.8 | 50.7 | 66% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:05 PM | 6.8 | 50.7 | 66% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:44 PM | 6.8 | 50.7 | 66% |