2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Joe Aillet Stadium
Army @ Louisiana Tech
Predicted scoreToss-up
Army
23.9
Louisiana Tech
21.6
Louisiana Tech win probability: 44%
Margin (Louisiana Tech − Army): -2.3 (80% range -21 to 17)
Total: 45.5 (80% range 24 to 69)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 17 | 0.84% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.83% |
| 14 | 14 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.76% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:05 PM | -2.3 | 45.1 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:06 PM | -2.3 | 45.1 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:38 PM | -2.3 | 45.5 | 44% |