2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Joe Aillet Stadium
Army @ Louisiana Tech
Predicted scoreToss-up
Army
22.5
Louisiana Tech
22.9
Louisiana Tech win probability: 51%
Margin (Louisiana Tech − Army): 0.4 (80% range -18 to 20)
Total: 45.3 (80% range 24 to 68)
Actual: Army 29 – Louisiana Tech 31 (margin error 1.6, total error 14.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | 0.83% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.81% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.78% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:05 PM | -2.3 | 45.1 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:06 PM | -2.3 | 45.1 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:38 PM | -2.3 | 45.5 | 44% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:50 AM | -2.3 | 45.5 | 44% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:13 PM | -2.2 | 45.5 | 44% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:54 PM | -1.1 | 45.1 | 47% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:53 PM | -1.0 | 45.0 | 47% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:03 PM | -1.1 | 45.4 | 47% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:34 PM | -1.1 | 45.5 | 47% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:57:49 AM | -0.2 | 45.6 | 50% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:44 PM | -0.2 | 45.6 | 50% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:40 PM | 0.4 | 45.3 | 51% |