2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · University Stadium (NM)
UTEP @ New Mexico
Predicted scoreConfident
UTEP
10.8
New Mexico
37.7
New Mexico win probability: 96%
Margin (New Mexico − UTEP): 26.9 (80% range 7 to 48)
Total: 48.5 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: UTEP 7 – New Mexico 61 (margin error 27.1, total error 19.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 38 | 1.07% |
| 7 | 35 | 1.03% |
| 7 | 31 | 1.01% |
| 10 | 38 | 1.00% |
| 0 | 38 | 0.94% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:07 PM | 14.6 | 49.3 | 83% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:15 PM | 14.6 | 49.3 | 83% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:46 PM | 14.7 | 49.3 | 83% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:01 AM | 14.6 | 49.3 | 83% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:58 PM | 14.7 | 49.3 | 83% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:52 PM | 13.8 | 48.9 | 82% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:55 PM | 21.8 | 47.9 | 93% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:12 PM | 20.8 | 48.3 | 91% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:30 PM | 20.7 | 48.4 | 91% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:14 AM | 20.9 | 48.3 | 92% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:27 PM | 20.9 | 48.3 | 92% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:33 PM | 26.9 | 48.5 | 96% |