2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · University Stadium (NM)
UTEP @ New Mexico
Predicted scoreLikely
UTEP
17.3
New Mexico
32.0
New Mexico win probability: 83%
Margin (New Mexico − UTEP): 14.7 (80% range -4 to 35)
Total: 49.3 (80% range 27 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 31 | 0.83% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.79% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.75% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.73% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:07 PM | 14.6 | 49.3 | 83% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:15 PM | 14.6 | 49.3 | 83% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:46 PM | 14.7 | 49.3 | 83% |