2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Davis Wade Stadium
Alabama @ Mississippi State
Predicted scoreLikely
Alabama
33.2
Mississippi State
24.5
Mississippi State win probability: 29%
Margin (Mississippi State − Alabama): -8.7 (80% range -29 to 11)
Total: 57.7 (80% range 34 to 83)
Actual: Alabama 56 – Mississippi State 23 (margin error 24.3, total error 21.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.65% |
| 38 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:06 PM | -10.5 | 54.7 | 26% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:14 PM | -10.5 | 54.7 | 26% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:36 PM | -9.2 | 54.6 | 28% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:35 AM | -9.2 | 54.6 | 28% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:12 PM | -9.2 | 54.6 | 28% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:38 PM | -9.7 | 54.9 | 27% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:34 PM | -10.1 | 56.1 | 26% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:11 PM | -8.7 | 55.1 | 29% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:50 PM | -8.6 | 55.1 | 30% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:57:56 AM | -8.3 | 55.0 | 30% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:39 PM | -8.2 | 55.0 | 30% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:19 PM | -8.7 | 57.7 | 29% |