2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Davis Wade Stadium
Alabama @ Mississippi State
Predicted scoreLikely
Alabama
31.9
Mississippi State
22.7
Mississippi State win probability: 28%
Margin (Mississippi State − Alabama): -9.2 (80% range -30 to 11)
Total: 54.6 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.63% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:06 PM | -10.5 | 54.7 | 26% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:14 PM | -10.5 | 54.7 | 26% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:36 PM | -9.2 | 54.6 | 28% |