2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Williams-Brice Stadium
Kentucky @ South Carolina
Predicted scoreToss-up
Kentucky
22.0
South Carolina
24.5
South Carolina win probability: 57%
Margin (South Carolina − Kentucky): 2.5 (80% range -17 to 21)
Total: 46.5 (80% range 26 to 69)
Actual: Kentucky 35 – South Carolina 34 (margin error 3.5, total error 22.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.88% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.79% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.78% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.76% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:09 PM | 4.5 | 43.2 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:14 PM | 4.5 | 43.3 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:34 PM | 4.5 | 43.3 | 62% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:37 AM | 4.5 | 43.3 | 62% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:11 PM | 4.5 | 43.3 | 62% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:51 PM | 4.3 | 42.4 | 62% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:33 PM | 7.7 | 45.1 | 69% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:20 PM | 9.9 | 45.5 | 74% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:40 PM | 9.9 | 45.5 | 75% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:15 AM | 10.2 | 45.5 | 75% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:28 PM | 10.2 | 45.5 | 75% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:33 PM | 2.5 | 46.5 | 57% |