2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Williams-Brice Stadium
Kentucky @ South Carolina
Predicted scoreLean
Kentucky
19.4
South Carolina
23.9
South Carolina win probability: 62%
Margin (South Carolina − Kentucky): 4.5 (80% range -14 to 24)
Total: 43.3 (80% range 23 to 65)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.89% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.84% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.83% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.79% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.78% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:09 PM | 4.5 | 43.2 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:14 PM | 4.5 | 43.3 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:34 PM | 4.5 | 43.3 | 62% |