2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Scheumann Stadium
Toledo @ Ball State
Predicted scoreConfident
Toledo
32.6
Ball State
15.9
Ball State win probability: 14%
Margin (Ball State − Toledo): -16.7 (80% range -37 to 3)
Total: 48.5 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 10 | 0.83% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.77% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.76% |
| 31 | 7 | 0.75% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:00 PM | -16.7 | 48.5 | 14% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:05 PM | -16.7 | 48.6 | 14% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:40 PM | -16.7 | 48.5 | 14% |