2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Scheumann Stadium
Toledo @ Ball State
Predicted scoreConfident
Toledo
36.3
Ball State
15.2
Ball State win probability: 9%
Margin (Ball State − Toledo): -21.1 (80% range -42 to -1)
Total: 51.5 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Toledo 39 – Ball State 24 (margin error 6.1, total error 11.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | 10 | 0.83% |
| 31 | 7 | 0.80% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.78% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 7 | 0.77% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:00 PM | -16.7 | 48.5 | 14% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:05 PM | -16.7 | 48.6 | 14% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:40 PM | -16.7 | 48.5 | 14% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:46 AM | -16.8 | 48.6 | 14% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:05 PM | -16.8 | 48.6 | 14% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:48 PM | -16.5 | 48.8 | 14% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:46 PM | -16.8 | 50.7 | 14% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:16 PM | -17.4 | 49.9 | 13% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:37 PM | -17.4 | 49.9 | 13% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:57:52 AM | -16.8 | 49.7 | 14% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:38 PM | -16.8 | 49.7 | 14% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:24 PM | -21.1 | 51.5 | 9% |