2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Boston College @ SMU
Predicted scoreConfident
Boston College
18.5
SMU
37.2
SMU win probability: 88%
Margin (SMU − Boston College): 18.7 (80% range -2 to 39)
Total: 55.7 (80% range 33 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 38 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.67% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.65% |
| 14 | 28 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:09 PM | 18.7 | 55.8 | 88% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:11 PM | 18.7 | 55.7 | 88% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:27 PM | 18.7 | 55.7 | 88% |