2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Boston College @ SMU
Predicted scoreLikely
Boston College
18.2
SMU
34.6
SMU win probability: 85%
Margin (SMU − Boston College): 16.4 (80% range -4 to 38)
Total: 52.9 (80% range 31 to 77)
Actual: Boston College 16 – SMU 25 (margin error 7.4, total error 11.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 31 | 0.83% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.65% |
| 14 | 38 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:09 PM | 18.7 | 55.8 | 88% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:11 PM | 18.7 | 55.7 | 88% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:27 PM | 18.7 | 55.7 | 88% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:44 AM | 18.6 | 55.7 | 88% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:01 PM | 18.7 | 55.7 | 88% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:31 PM | 18.0 | 56.3 | 87% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:52 PM | 20.3 | 55.1 | 90% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:57 PM | 21.5 | 54.5 | 91% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:44 PM | 21.5 | 54.5 | 91% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:57:57 AM | 21.5 | 54.5 | 91% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:32 PM | 21.5 | 54.5 | 91% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:19 PM | 16.4 | 52.9 | 85% |