2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Stanford @ Wake Forest
Predicted scoreLikely
Stanford
19.2
Wake Forest
34.9
Wake Forest win probability: 84%
Margin (Wake Forest − Stanford): 15.7 (80% range -4 to 36)
Total: 54.1 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Stanford 3 – Wake Forest 57 (margin error 38.3, total error 5.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.63% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:12 PM | 10.2 | 49.4 | 74% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:08 PM | 10.2 | 49.3 | 74% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:22 PM | 10.2 | 49.3 | 74% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:00 AM | 10.3 | 49.3 | 74% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:59 PM | 10.2 | 49.3 | 74% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:58 PM | 10.2 | 48.9 | 75% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:57 PM | 9.6 | 52.5 | 73% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:18 PM | 10.6 | 55.3 | 75% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:49 PM | 10.6 | 55.2 | 75% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:57:55 AM | 10.7 | 55.2 | 75% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:32 PM | 10.7 | 55.2 | 75% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:22 PM | 15.7 | 54.1 | 84% |