2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Jack Trice Stadium
West Virginia @ Iowa State
Predicted scoreLikely
West Virginia
21.1
Iowa State
32.7
Iowa State win probability: 77%
Margin (Iowa State − West Virginia): 11.5 (80% range -8 to 32)
Total: 53.8 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.79% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:04 PM | 11.5 | 53.9 | 77% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:11 PM | 11.5 | 53.9 | 77% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:28 PM | 11.5 | 53.8 | 77% |