2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Jack Trice Stadium
West Virginia @ Iowa State
Predicted scoreLikely
West Virginia
21.0
Iowa State
36.8
Iowa State win probability: 83%
Margin (Iowa State − West Virginia): 15.8 (80% range -4 to 36)
Total: 57.9 (80% range 34 to 83)
Actual: West Virginia 42 – Iowa State 45 (margin error 12.8, total error 29.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 38 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.68% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:04 PM | 11.5 | 53.9 | 77% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:11 PM | 11.5 | 53.9 | 77% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:28 PM | 11.5 | 53.8 | 77% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:43 AM | 11.5 | 53.8 | 77% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:06 PM | 11.5 | 53.8 | 77% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:44 PM | 10.1 | 53.8 | 74% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:39 PM | 13.6 | 55.1 | 80% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:08 PM | 13.2 | 55.3 | 79% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:32 PM | 13.1 | 55.3 | 79% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:57:56 AM | 13.3 | 55.4 | 80% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:36 PM | 13.3 | 55.4 | 80% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:17 PM | 15.8 | 57.9 | 83% |