2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Bridgeforth Stadium
Marshall @ James Madison
Predicted scoreConfident
Marshall
18.5
James Madison
35.0
James Madison win probability: 85%
Margin (James Madison − Marshall): 16.5 (80% range -4 to 38)
Total: 53.5 (80% range 31 to 78)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 38 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:04 PM | 16.5 | 53.5 | 85% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:07 PM | 16.5 | 53.6 | 85% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:48 PM | 16.5 | 53.5 | 85% |