2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Bridgeforth Stadium
Marshall @ James Madison
Predicted scoreConfident
Marshall
18.4
James Madison
37.5
James Madison win probability: 89%
Margin (James Madison − Marshall): 19.1 (80% range -1 to 40)
Total: 56.0 (80% range 33 to 80)
Actual: Marshall 17 – James Madison 45 (margin error 8.9, total error 6.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.72% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.64% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:04 PM | 16.5 | 53.5 | 85% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:07 PM | 16.5 | 53.6 | 85% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:48 PM | 16.5 | 53.5 | 85% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:51 AM | 16.5 | 53.5 | 85% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:13 PM | 16.6 | 53.5 | 85% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:59 PM | 17.3 | 53.6 | 86% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:49 PM | 17.7 | 52.6 | 87% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:02 PM | 17.8 | 51.9 | 87% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:37 PM | 17.6 | 52.3 | 87% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:13 AM | 17.8 | 52.4 | 87% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:26 PM | 17.8 | 52.4 | 87% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:32 PM | 19.1 | 56.0 | 89% |