2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Washington @ USC
Predicted scoreLean
Washington
24.9
USC
30.2
USC win probability: 63%
Margin (USC − Washington): 5.3 (80% range -14 to 25)
Total: 55.1 (80% range 31 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.61% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:11 PM | 5.3 | 55.1 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:09 PM | 5.3 | 55.1 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:20 PM | 5.3 | 55.1 | 63% |