2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Washington @ USC
Predicted scoreLean
Washington
24.7
USC
29.7
USC win probability: 62%
Margin (USC − Washington): 5.0 (80% range -14 to 25)
Total: 54.4 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Washington 21 – USC 25 (margin error 1.0, total error 8.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:11 PM | 5.3 | 55.1 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:09 PM | 5.3 | 55.1 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:20 PM | 5.3 | 55.1 | 63% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:36 AM | 5.3 | 55.1 | 63% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:01 PM | 5.3 | 55.0 | 63% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:53 PM | 5.1 | 54.7 | 63% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:30 PM | 5.7 | 53.5 | 64% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:01 PM | 6.9 | 52.6 | 67% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:43 PM | 6.9 | 52.6 | 67% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:57:50 AM | 7.1 | 52.6 | 68% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:43 PM | 7.1 | 52.6 | 68% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:39 PM | 5.0 | 54.4 | 62% |