Predicted scoreToss-up
BYU
25.6
TCU
24.1
TCU win probability: 47%
Margin (TCU − BYU): -1.5 (80% range -21 to 18)
Total: 49.7 (80% range 27 to 73)
Actual: BYU 17 – TCU 10 (margin error 5.5, total error 22.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:10 PM | 0.2 | 52.9 | 50% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:12 PM | 0.2 | 52.9 | 50% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:31 PM | 0.3 | 52.9 | 50% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:41 AM | 0.2 | 52.9 | 50% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:12 PM | 0.3 | 52.9 | 50% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:41 PM | 0.3 | 52.4 | 51% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:37 PM | -0.4 | 50.6 | 49% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:05 PM | -1.3 | 51.4 | 47% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:47 PM | -1.2 | 51.4 | 47% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:17 AM | -1.3 | 51.4 | 47% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:30 PM | -1.3 | 51.4 | 47% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:37 PM | -1.5 | 49.7 | 47% |