Predicted scoreLikely
Auburn
19.4
Tennessee
30.9
Tennessee win probability: 77%
Margin (Tennessee − Auburn): 11.4 (80% range -8 to 31)
Total: 50.3 (80% range 28 to 73)
Actual: Auburn 14 – Tennessee 24 (margin error 1.4, total error 12.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.79% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.67% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:10 PM | 7.2 | 51.4 | 68% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:13 PM | 7.2 | 51.4 | 68% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:33 PM | 7.2 | 51.4 | 68% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:38 AM | 7.2 | 51.4 | 68% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:02 PM | 7.2 | 51.4 | 68% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:36 PM | 7.3 | 51.1 | 67% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:50 PM | 9.6 | 50.3 | 73% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:09 PM | 12.5 | 50.8 | 79% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:41 PM | 12.5 | 50.8 | 79% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:07 AM | 12.6 | 50.9 | 79% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:48 PM | 12.6 | 50.9 | 79% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:25 PM | 11.4 | 50.3 | 77% |