2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Kinnick Stadium
Ohio State @ Iowa
Predicted scoreLean
Ohio State
26.4
Iowa
19.1
Iowa win probability: 31%
Margin (Iowa − Ohio State): -7.3 (80% range -27 to 11)
Total: 45.5 (80% range 24 to 68)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.89% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.81% |
| 24 | 10 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.77% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.76% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:04 PM | -7.3 | 45.5 | 31% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:10 PM | -7.3 | 45.6 | 31% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:23 PM | -7.3 | 45.5 | 31% |