Predicted scoreConfident
Tulsa
18.3
Arkansas
38.0
Arkansas win probability: 89%
Margin (Arkansas − Tulsa): 19.7 (80% range -1 to 41)
Total: 56.3 (80% range 33 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 45 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 38 | 0.71% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:45 PM | 19.8 | 56.1 | 89% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:03 PM | 19.9 | 56.1 | 89% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:13 PM | 19.7 | 56.3 | 89% |