Predicted scoreConfident
Tulsa
19.1
Arkansas
37.2
Arkansas win probability: 87%
Margin (Arkansas − Tulsa): 18.1 (80% range -3 to 39)
Total: 56.3 (80% range 33 to 82)
Actual: Tulsa 6 – Arkansas 34 (margin error 9.9, total error 16.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.61% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 17 | 45 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:45 PM | 19.8 | 56.1 | 89% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:03 PM | 19.9 | 56.1 | 89% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:13 PM | 19.7 | 56.3 | 89% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:07 AM | 19.8 | 56.3 | 89% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:51 PM | 20.0 | 56.1 | 89% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:24 PM | 21.1 | 56.4 | 90% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:20 PM | 21.9 | 56.5 | 91% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:47 PM | 17.4 | 55.8 | 86% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:26 PM | 18.1 | 56.3 | 87% |