2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 10:30 PM · Hard Rock Stadium
Central Michigan @ Miami
Predicted scoreConfident
Central Michigan
9.6
Miami
44.0
Miami win probability: 99%
Margin (Miami − Central Michigan): 34.4 (80% range 14 to 56)
Total: 53.6 (80% range 31 to 76)
Actual: Central Michigan 3 – Miami 52 (margin error 14.6, total error 1.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 38 | 1.05% |
| 0 | 38 | 1.03% |
| 0 | 31 | 0.94% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.90% |
| 7 | 35 | 0.90% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:51 PM | 29.9 | 52.5 | 97% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:02 PM | 30.1 | 52.5 | 98% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:10 PM | 30.0 | 52.6 | 97% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:04 AM | 30.1 | 52.3 | 98% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:50 PM | 30.2 | 52.6 | 98% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:20 PM | 30.6 | 52.5 | 98% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:17 PM | 34.4 | 53.6 | 99% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:50 PM | 34.2 | 53.9 | 99% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:03 PM | 34.4 | 53.6 | 99% |