Predicted scoreToss-up
Hawai'i
23.5
Wyoming
27.0
Wyoming win probability: 59%
Margin (Wyoming − Hawai'i): 3.4 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 50.5 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: Hawai'i 10 – Wyoming 27 (margin error 13.6, total error 13.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.71% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.67% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:59 PM | 1.8 | 48.8 | 55% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:01 PM | 2.3 | 49.1 | 56% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:08 PM | 1.7 | 49.3 | 54% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:02 AM | 2.1 | 49.4 | 55% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:49 PM | 1.8 | 49.8 | 55% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:19 PM | 2.6 | 48.6 | 57% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:15 PM | 1.8 | 49.3 | 55% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:51 PM | 3.4 | 49.4 | 59% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:11 PM | 3.4 | 50.5 | 59% |