Predicted scoreToss-up
Texas
25.7
Tennessee
27.0
Tennessee win probability: 53%
Margin (Tennessee − Texas): 1.3 (80% range -18 to 21)
Total: 52.8 (80% range 30 to 77)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.62% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:55 PM | 1.3 | 52.6 | 53% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:01 PM | 1.3 | 52.8 | 53% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:07 PM | 1.3 | 52.8 | 53% |