Predicted scoreToss-up
Texas
25.4
Tennessee
26.5
Tennessee win probability: 53%
Margin (Tennessee − Texas): 1.1 (80% range -19 to 21)
Total: 51.9 (80% range 29 to 76)
Actual: Texas 20 – Tennessee 17 (margin error 4.1, total error 14.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.60% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:55 PM | 1.3 | 52.6 | 53% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:01 PM | 1.3 | 52.8 | 53% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:07 PM | 1.3 | 52.8 | 53% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:01 AM | 1.3 | 52.8 | 53% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:48 PM | 1.2 | 52.8 | 53% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:17 PM | -0.1 | 53.2 | 50% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:14 PM | -2.4 | 51.2 | 44% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:22 PM | 1.0 | 52.0 | 53% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:18 PM | 1.1 | 51.9 | 53% |