2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Jones AT&T Stadium
Sam Houston @ Texas Tech
Predicted scoreConfident
Sam Houston
11.2
Texas Tech
42.6
Texas Tech win probability: 98%
Margin (Texas Tech − Sam Houston): 31.4 (80% range 11 to 52)
Total: 53.8 (80% range 31 to 77)
Actual: Sam Houston 14 – Texas Tech 49 (margin error 3.6, total error 9.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 31 | 0.88% |
| 7 | 38 | 0.86% |
| 7 | 35 | 0.86% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.86% |
| 10 | 45 | 0.85% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:55 PM | 35.8 | 51.9 | 99% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:51 PM | 35.7 | 51.7 | 99% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:39 PM | 35.9 | 51.9 | 99% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:16 AM | 35.9 | 51.5 | 99% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:34 PM | 36.1 | 52.1 | 99% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:14 PM | 35.2 | 51.5 | 99% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:53 PM | 32.4 | 52.8 | 98% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:33 PM | 31.2 | 53.4 | 98% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:18 PM | 31.4 | 53.8 | 98% |