2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Jones AT&T Stadium
Sam Houston @ Texas Tech
Predicted scoreConfident
Sam Houston
8.0
Texas Tech
43.9
Texas Tech win probability: 99%
Margin (Texas Tech − Sam Houston): 35.9 (80% range 15 to 56)
Total: 51.9 (80% range 31 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 38 | 1.41% |
| 0 | 35 | 1.19% |
| 7 | 38 | 1.08% |
| 0 | 31 | 1.06% |
| 0 | 52 | 1.03% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:55 PM | 35.8 | 51.9 | 99% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:51 PM | 35.7 | 51.7 | 99% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:39 PM | 35.9 | 51.9 | 99% |