2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Hornet Stadium
Massachusetts @ Sacramento State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Massachusetts
27.6
Sacramento State
25.0
Sacramento State win probability: 43%
Margin (Sacramento State − Massachusetts): -2.6 (80% range -23 to 17)
Total: 52.6 (80% range 30 to 77)
Actual: Massachusetts 35 – Sacramento State 6 (margin error 26.4, total error 11.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.76% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.68% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:06 PM | 23.9 | 54.1 | 92% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:24 AM | 23.5 | 54.8 | 91% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:36 PM | 23.2 | 54.7 | 91% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:00 PM | 23.7 | 55.3 | 91% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:46 PM | 5.4 | 49.9 | 64% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:27 PM | -2.5 | 51.5 | 44% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:23 PM | -2.6 | 52.6 | 43% |