2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Malone Stadium
Florida Atlantic @ UL Monroe
Predicted scoreLean
Florida Atlantic
31.8
UL Monroe
24.7
UL Monroe win probability: 33%
Margin (UL Monroe − Florida Atlantic): -7.1 (80% range -28 to 14)
Total: 56.5 (80% range 34 to 82)
Actual: Florida Atlantic 45 – UL Monroe 17 (margin error 20.9, total error 5.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:56 PM | -5.2 | 53.1 | 37% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:55 PM | -5.2 | 53.1 | 37% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:47 PM | -5.4 | 53.3 | 37% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:28 AM | -5.3 | 52.9 | 37% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:42 PM | -5.1 | 53.1 | 37% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:54 PM | -5.5 | 52.7 | 37% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:04 PM | -6.4 | 55.7 | 35% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:39 PM | -6.5 | 56.6 | 34% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:37:54 PM | -7.1 | 56.5 | 33% |