2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Malone Stadium
Florida Atlantic @ UL Monroe
Predicted scoreLean
Florida Atlantic
29.3
UL Monroe
23.9
UL Monroe win probability: 37%
Margin (UL Monroe − Florida Atlantic): -5.4 (80% range -25 to 14)
Total: 53.3 (80% range 30 to 78)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.79% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:56 PM | -5.2 | 53.1 | 37% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:55 PM | -5.2 | 53.1 | 37% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:47 PM | -5.4 | 53.3 | 37% |