2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Husky Stadium
Minnesota @ Washington
Predicted scoreLikely
Minnesota
17.2
Washington
31.4
Washington win probability: 82%
Margin (Washington − Minnesota): 14.2 (80% range -6 to 34)
Total: 48.5 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: Minnesota 27 – Washington 24 (margin error 17.2, total error 2.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 31 | 0.91% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.81% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.81% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.73% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:58 PM | 13.3 | 49.0 | 81% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:00 PM | 13.3 | 49.0 | 81% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:04 PM | 13.4 | 48.9 | 81% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:50 AM | 13.3 | 48.8 | 81% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:47 PM | 13.4 | 48.8 | 81% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:57 PM | 14.2 | 48.7 | 83% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:07 PM | 15.2 | 48.9 | 84% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:37 PM | 15.3 | 48.7 | 84% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:25 PM | 14.2 | 48.5 | 82% |