2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
Houston @ Georgia Southern
Predicted scoreLikely
Houston
32.3
Georgia Southern
21.8
Georgia Southern win probability: 26%
Margin (Georgia Southern − Houston): -10.4 (80% range -31 to 10)
Total: 54.1 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Houston 42 – Georgia Southern 28 (margin error 3.6, total error 15.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.69% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:48 PM | -10.6 | 56.5 | 26% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:51 PM | -10.6 | 56.5 | 26% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:40 PM | -10.6 | 56.3 | 25% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:00 AM | -10.8 | 56.4 | 25% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:35 PM | -10.6 | 56.3 | 25% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:13 PM | -11.5 | 55.9 | 24% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:45 PM | -12.9 | 57.3 | 21% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:22 PM | -10.2 | 54.0 | 26% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:06 PM | -10.4 | 54.1 | 26% |