2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
Houston @ Georgia Southern
Predicted scoreLikely
Houston
33.5
Georgia Southern
22.8
Georgia Southern win probability: 25%
Margin (Georgia Southern − Houston): -10.6 (80% range -31 to 10)
Total: 56.3 (80% range 33 to 81)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:48 PM | -10.6 | 56.5 | 26% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:51 PM | -10.6 | 56.5 | 26% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:40 PM | -10.6 | 56.3 | 25% |