2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · S.B. Ballard Stadium
James Madison @ Old Dominion
Predicted scoreLean
James Madison
28.3
Old Dominion
21.2
Old Dominion win probability: 33%
Margin (Old Dominion − James Madison): -7.1 (80% range -27 to 13)
Total: 49.4 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 14 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.67% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:53 PM | -7.1 | 49.4 | 32% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:00 PM | -7.1 | 49.5 | 33% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:56 PM | -7.1 | 49.4 | 33% |