2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · S.B. Ballard Stadium
James Madison @ Old Dominion
Predicted scoreLean
James Madison
28.7
Old Dominion
21.0
Old Dominion win probability: 31%
Margin (Old Dominion − James Madison): -7.7 (80% range -28 to 11)
Total: 49.7 (80% range 27 to 73)
Actual: James Madison 46 – Old Dominion 20 (margin error 18.3, total error 16.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.81% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:53 PM | -7.1 | 49.4 | 32% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:00 PM | -7.1 | 49.5 | 33% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:56 PM | -7.1 | 49.4 | 33% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:19 AM | -7.1 | 49.4 | 32% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:37 PM | -7.1 | 49.4 | 33% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:54 PM | -7.8 | 49.0 | 31% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:46 PM | -5.7 | 50.1 | 35% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:25 PM | -7.7 | 49.9 | 31% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:04 PM | -7.7 | 49.7 | 31% |