2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Ross-Ade Stadium
Notre Dame @ Purdue
Predicted scoreConfident
Notre Dame
41.0
Purdue
15.3
Purdue win probability: 5%
Margin (Purdue − Notre Dame): -25.7 (80% range -46 to -6)
Total: 56.3 (80% range 34 to 80)
Actual: Notre Dame 49 – Purdue 10 (margin error 13.3, total error 2.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | 17 | 0.77% |
| 38 | 7 | 0.73% |
| 38 | 10 | 0.71% |
| 35 | 10 | 0.70% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:54 PM | -23.8 | 53.8 | 6% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:59 PM | -23.8 | 53.6 | 6% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:57 PM | -23.6 | 53.5 | 7% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:51 AM | -24.0 | 53.8 | 6% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:31 PM | -23.9 | 54.2 | 6% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:59 PM | -23.8 | 53.7 | 6% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:08 PM | -25.1 | 55.3 | 6% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:36 PM | -26.4 | 56.6 | 5% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:12 PM | -25.7 | 56.3 | 5% |