2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Ross-Ade Stadium
Notre Dame @ Purdue
Predicted scoreConfident
Notre Dame
38.5
Purdue
14.9
Purdue win probability: 7%
Margin (Purdue − Notre Dame): -23.6 (80% range -45 to -3)
Total: 53.5 (80% range 31 to 77)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | 10 | 0.90% |
| 31 | 7 | 0.83% |
| 38 | 7 | 0.81% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.69% |
| 28 | 10 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:54 PM | -23.8 | 53.8 | 6% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:59 PM | -23.8 | 53.6 | 6% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:57 PM | -23.6 | 53.5 | 7% |