2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Wake Forest @ Louisville
Predicted scoreLikely
Wake Forest
22.8
Louisville
32.6
Louisville win probability: 73%
Margin (Louisville − Wake Forest): 9.7 (80% range -11 to 31)
Total: 55.4 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Wake Forest 30 – Louisville 27 (margin error 12.7, total error 1.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:50 PM | 7.8 | 52.0 | 69% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:57 PM | 7.9 | 52.1 | 69% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:53 PM | 7.9 | 52.0 | 69% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:25 AM | 8.0 | 51.9 | 69% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:37 PM | 8.1 | 51.8 | 69% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:07 PM | 7.8 | 52.3 | 69% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:57 PM | 11.2 | 54.4 | 76% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:35 PM | 9.7 | 55.2 | 73% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:19 PM | 9.7 | 55.4 | 73% |