2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Wake Forest @ Louisville
Predicted scoreLean
Wake Forest
22.1
Louisville
30.0
Louisville win probability: 69%
Margin (Louisville − Wake Forest): 7.9 (80% range -13 to 28)
Total: 52.0 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:50 PM | 7.8 | 52.0 | 69% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:57 PM | 7.9 | 52.1 | 69% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:53 PM | 7.9 | 52.0 | 69% |