Predicted scoreConfident
Delaware
15.7
Virginia
33.6
Virginia win probability: 88%
Margin (Virginia − Delaware): 17.9 (80% range -1 to 38)
Total: 49.2 (80% range 27 to 73)
Actual: Delaware 3 – Virginia 42 (margin error 21.1, total error 4.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 31 | 0.79% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.75% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.74% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:57 PM | 20.7 | 52.4 | 91% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:50 PM | 20.8 | 52.4 | 91% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:50 PM | 20.7 | 52.2 | 91% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:57 AM | 20.6 | 52.3 | 91% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:38 PM | 20.7 | 52.2 | 91% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:09 PM | 20.4 | 52.7 | 90% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:56 PM | 23.4 | 52.5 | 93% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:34 PM | 17.8 | 49.3 | 88% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:03 PM | 17.9 | 49.2 | 88% |