Predicted scoreLikely
UNLV
33.1
Akron
20.3
Akron win probability: 21%
Margin (Akron − UNLV): -12.8 (80% range -34 to 7)
Total: 53.3 (80% range 31 to 78)
Actual: UNLV 38 – Akron 10 (margin error 15.2, total error 5.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.75% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 10 | 0.69% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.67% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:44 PM | -14.3 | 55.3 | 19% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:57 PM | -14.4 | 55.2 | 18% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:39 PM | -14.4 | 55.2 | 18% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:18 AM | -14.3 | 55.4 | 19% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:33 PM | -14.5 | 55.0 | 18% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:51 PM | -15.0 | 54.7 | 18% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:59 PM | -16.0 | 54.4 | 16% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:41 PM | -13.2 | 53.2 | 20% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:16 PM | -12.8 | 53.3 | 21% |