2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Glass Bowl
San Diego State @ Toledo
Predicted scoreLean
San Diego State
22.0
Toledo
26.3
Toledo win probability: 61%
Margin (Toledo − San Diego State): 4.4 (80% range -15 to 24)
Total: 48.3 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.79% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:55 PM | 4.5 | 48.4 | 61% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:56 PM | 4.4 | 48.3 | 61% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:59 PM | 4.4 | 48.3 | 61% |