2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Glass Bowl
San Diego State @ Toledo
Predicted scoreToss-up
San Diego State
22.1
Toledo
25.8
Toledo win probability: 60%
Margin (Toledo − San Diego State): 3.7 (80% range -16 to 24)
Total: 47.8 (80% range 27 to 71)
Actual: San Diego State 16 – Toledo 41 (margin error 21.3, total error 9.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.75% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:55 PM | 4.5 | 48.4 | 61% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:56 PM | 4.4 | 48.3 | 61% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:59 PM | 4.4 | 48.3 | 61% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:30 AM | 4.6 | 48.2 | 61% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:42 PM | 4.4 | 48.3 | 61% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:57 PM | 3.6 | 49.2 | 60% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:06 PM | 2.2 | 49.6 | 55% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:38 PM | 4.0 | 47.2 | 60% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:17 PM | 3.7 | 47.8 | 60% |