2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Dix Stadium
Ball State @ Kent State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Ball State
27.1
Kent State
25.3
Kent State win probability: 45%
Margin (Kent State − Ball State): -1.8 (80% range -21 to 18)
Total: 52.4 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Ball State 13 – Kent State 26 (margin error 14.8, total error 13.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:50 PM | 1.5 | 50.3 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:57 PM | 1.5 | 51.1 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:00 PM | 0.1 | 51.1 | 50% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:17 AM | 1.6 | 51.0 | 54% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:41 PM | 0.4 | 51.0 | 51% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:49 PM | 0.3 | 51.0 | 51% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:59 PM | -2.6 | 53.0 | 44% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:42 PM | -1.7 | 52.4 | 46% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:17 PM | -1.8 | 52.4 | 45% |