2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Dix Stadium
Ball State @ Kent State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Ball State
25.5
Kent State
25.6
Kent State win probability: 50%
Margin (Kent State − Ball State): 0.1 (80% range -21 to 21)
Total: 51.1 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:50 PM | 1.5 | 50.3 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:57 PM | 1.5 | 51.1 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:00 PM | 0.1 | 51.1 | 50% |