2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Yulman Stadium
Southern Miss @ Tulane
Predicted scoreLikely
Southern Miss
18.7
Tulane
33.0
Tulane win probability: 82%
Margin (Tulane − Southern Miss): 14.2 (80% range -6 to 35)
Total: 51.7 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Southern Miss 21 – Tulane 24 (margin error 11.2, total error 6.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.81% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 10 | 28 | 0.72% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:55 PM | 15.8 | 53.5 | 84% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:54 PM | 15.9 | 53.4 | 84% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:46 PM | 15.8 | 53.4 | 84% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:27 AM | 15.9 | 53.4 | 84% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:45 PM | 15.8 | 53.4 | 84% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:48 PM | 14.7 | 53.4 | 83% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:03 PM | 15.7 | 51.4 | 84% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:40 PM | 14.2 | 51.5 | 82% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:00 PM | 14.2 | 51.7 | 82% |