2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Yulman Stadium
Southern Miss @ Tulane
Predicted scoreLikely
Southern Miss
18.8
Tulane
34.6
Tulane win probability: 84%
Margin (Tulane − Southern Miss): 15.8 (80% range -4 to 36)
Total: 53.4 (80% range 31 to 78)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.79% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 28 | 0.70% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:55 PM | 15.8 | 53.5 | 84% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:54 PM | 15.9 | 53.4 | 84% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:46 PM | 15.8 | 53.4 | 84% |