2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Waldo Stadium
Boise State @ Western Michigan
Predicted scoreLean
Boise State
28.2
Western Michigan
21.5
Western Michigan win probability: 33%
Margin (Western Michigan − Boise State): -6.7 (80% range -27 to 13)
Total: 49.8 (80% range 27 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.85% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.81% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:58 PM | -6.6 | 50.2 | 33% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:56 PM | -6.8 | 49.9 | 33% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:03 PM | -6.7 | 49.8 | 33% |