2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Waldo Stadium
Boise State @ Western Michigan
Predicted scoreLikely
Boise State
29.4
Western Michigan
20.3
Western Michigan win probability: 28%
Margin (Western Michigan − Boise State): -9.1 (80% range -28 to 10)
Total: 49.6 (80% range 27 to 73)
Actual: Boise State 32 – Western Michigan 7 (margin error 15.9, total error 10.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.83% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.77% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.76% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:58 PM | -6.6 | 50.2 | 33% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:56 PM | -6.8 | 49.9 | 33% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:03 PM | -6.7 | 49.8 | 33% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:23 AM | -6.5 | 50.0 | 34% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:36 PM | -6.6 | 50.0 | 33% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:50 PM | -6.4 | 50.5 | 34% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:10 PM | -9.4 | 50.8 | 28% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:24 PM | -9.5 | 49.4 | 27% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:10 PM | -9.1 | 49.6 | 28% |