2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Bryant-Denny Stadium
South Carolina @ Alabama
Predicted scoreLikely
South Carolina
17.8
Alabama
31.2
Alabama win probability: 81%
Margin (Alabama − South Carolina): 13.4 (80% range -7 to 34)
Total: 49.0 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: South Carolina 18 – Alabama 49 (margin error 17.6, total error 18.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.75% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:45 PM | 12.9 | 47.6 | 80% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:53 PM | 13.0 | 47.5 | 81% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:54 PM | 13.0 | 47.5 | 81% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:14 AM | 13.1 | 47.4 | 81% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:36 PM | 12.8 | 47.6 | 80% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:15 PM | 12.8 | 47.9 | 80% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:49 PM | 11.8 | 49.2 | 78% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:31 PM | 13.0 | 49.3 | 80% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:37:59 PM | 13.4 | 49.0 | 81% |