2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Jack Trice Stadium
Utah @ Iowa State
Predicted scoreLean
Utah
29.7
Iowa State
23.2
Iowa State win probability: 34%
Margin (Iowa State − Utah): -6.6 (80% range -27 to 14)
Total: 52.9 (80% range 30 to 77)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.62% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:49 PM | -6.7 | 53.1 | 34% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:50 PM | -6.8 | 52.9 | 33% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:05 PM | -6.6 | 52.9 | 34% |