2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Jack Trice Stadium
Utah @ Iowa State
Predicted scoreLean
Utah
29.4
Iowa State
22.1
Iowa State win probability: 32%
Margin (Iowa State − Utah): -7.3 (80% range -28 to 13)
Total: 51.4 (80% range 29 to 75)
Actual: Utah 31 – Iowa State 17 (margin error 6.7, total error 3.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:49 PM | -6.7 | 53.1 | 34% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:50 PM | -6.8 | 52.9 | 33% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:05 PM | -6.6 | 52.9 | 34% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:59 AM | -6.6 | 52.9 | 34% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:40 PM | -6.7 | 53.1 | 34% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:11 PM | -6.4 | 53.2 | 34% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:54 PM | -6.8 | 53.2 | 33% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:23 PM | -7.6 | 51.2 | 32% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:09 PM | -7.3 | 51.4 | 32% |