Predicted scoreLean
Navy
29.6
UAB
22.6
UAB win probability: 32%
Margin (UAB − Navy): -7.0 (80% range -27 to 13)
Total: 52.2 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Navy 20 – UAB 24 (margin error 11.0, total error 8.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.81% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.70% |
| 28 | 21 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:56 PM | -12.7 | 53.0 | 21% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:49 PM | -12.7 | 53.1 | 21% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:36 PM | -12.9 | 53.0 | 20% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:12 AM | -12.8 | 53.0 | 21% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:32 PM | -12.9 | 52.9 | 20% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:45 PM | -12.1 | 52.7 | 22% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:43 PM | -11.4 | 52.8 | 24% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:44 PM | -7.0 | 52.0 | 33% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:20 PM | -7.0 | 52.2 | 32% |