Predicted scoreLikely
Navy
32.9
UAB
20.1
UAB win probability: 20%
Margin (UAB − Navy): -12.9 (80% range -32 to 7)
Total: 53.0 (80% range 30 to 77)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 14 | 0.77% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.75% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 35 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 21 | 14 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:56 PM | -12.7 | 53.0 | 21% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:49 PM | -12.7 | 53.1 | 21% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:36 PM | -12.9 | 53.0 | 20% |