2026 Week 3 · Sep 20, 2026, 2:30 AM · Arizona Stadium
Northern Illinois @ Arizona
Predicted scoreConfident
Northern Illinois
13.0
Arizona
37.7
Arizona win probability: 94%
Margin (Arizona − Northern Illinois): 24.6 (80% range 4 to 45)
Total: 50.7 (80% range 28 to 74)
Actual: Northern Illinois 17 – Arizona 42 (margin error 0.4, total error 8.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 35 | 0.87% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.86% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.84% |
| 7 | 38 | 0.81% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.80% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:31 PM | 21.7 | 51.7 | 92% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:48 PM | 21.6 | 51.7 | 92% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:32 PM | 21.6 | 51.7 | 92% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:26 AM | 21.5 | 51.7 | 92% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:12 PM | 21.8 | 51.7 | 92% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:08 PM | 21.5 | 51.5 | 92% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:06 PM | 24.4 | 49.9 | 94% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:55:53 PM | 24.6 | 50.7 | 94% |