2026 Week 3 · Sep 20, 2026, 2:00 AM · Snapdragon Stadium
James Madison @ San Diego State
Predicted scoreLean
James Madison
26.0
San Diego State
21.9
San Diego State win probability: 39%
Margin (San Diego State − James Madison): -4.1 (80% range -24 to 15)
Total: 48.0 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.94% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.75% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:39 PM | -3.8 | 49.3 | 40% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:47 PM | -4.0 | 49.2 | 39% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:31 PM | -4.1 | 48.0 | 39% |