2026 Week 3 · Sep 20, 2026, 2:00 AM · Snapdragon Stadium
James Madison @ San Diego State
Predicted scoreToss-up
James Madison
26.4
San Diego State
23.5
San Diego State win probability: 43%
Margin (San Diego State − James Madison): -3.0 (80% range -23 to 17)
Total: 49.9 (80% range 27 to 73)
Actual: James Madison 26 – San Diego State 13 (margin error 10.0, total error 10.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:39 PM | -3.8 | 49.3 | 40% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:47 PM | -4.0 | 49.2 | 39% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:31 PM | -4.1 | 48.0 | 39% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:25 AM | -4.1 | 49.3 | 39% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:13 PM | -3.7 | 48.0 | 40% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:10 PM | -5.0 | 48.0 | 37% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:03 PM | -0.3 | 49.3 | 49% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:55:53 PM | -3.0 | 49.9 | 43% |