Predicted scoreLean
UAB
23.1
Louisiana
29.2
Louisiana win probability: 65%
Margin (Louisiana − UAB): 6.0 (80% range -14 to 27)
Total: 52.3 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: UAB 14 – Louisiana 21 (margin error 1.0, total error 17.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | 24 | 0.83% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.82% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:35 PM | 6.8 | 51.6 | 67% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:47 PM | 6.8 | 51.6 | 67% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:31 PM | 7.1 | 51.8 | 67% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:23 AM | 6.9 | 51.6 | 67% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:14 PM | 6.7 | 51.9 | 66% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:10 PM | 6.4 | 51.4 | 66% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:02 PM | 3.0 | 53.3 | 57% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:55:52 PM | 6.0 | 52.3 | 65% |