Predicted scoreLean
UAB
22.3
Louisiana
29.5
Louisiana win probability: 67%
Margin (Louisiana − UAB): 7.1 (80% range -13 to 28)
Total: 51.8 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.83% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:35 PM | 6.8 | 51.6 | 67% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:47 PM | 6.8 | 51.6 | 67% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:31 PM | 7.1 | 51.8 | 67% |