2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 11:45 PM · Neyland Stadium
Kennesaw State @ Tennessee
Predicted scoreConfident
Kennesaw State
11.7
Tennessee
41.9
Tennessee win probability: 97%
Margin (Tennessee − Kennesaw State): 30.1 (80% range 10 to 51)
Total: 53.6 (80% range 31 to 77)
Actual: Kennesaw State 9 – Tennessee 42 (margin error 2.9, total error 2.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 38 | 0.93% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.85% |
| 10 | 42 | 0.84% |
| 7 | 42 | 0.83% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.82% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:41 PM | 22.9 | 54.1 | 93% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:46 PM | 22.9 | 54.1 | 93% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:29 PM | 23.0 | 54.3 | 93% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:23 AM | 23.0 | 54.3 | 93% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:14 PM | 23.1 | 54.2 | 93% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:13 PM | 22.8 | 54.3 | 93% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:00 PM | 24.8 | 53.6 | 95% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:55:58 PM | 30.1 | 53.6 | 97% |