2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 11:30 PM · Bank of America Stadium (neutral site)
West Virginia @ Virginia
Predicted scoreLikely
West Virginia
21.6
Virginia
30.7
Virginia win probability: 72%
Margin (Virginia − West Virginia): 9.1 (80% range -11 to 29)
Total: 52.4 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: West Virginia 38 – Virginia 27 (margin error 20.1, total error 12.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.87% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.81% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:43 PM | 6.7 | 51.9 | 67% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:46 PM | 6.7 | 51.8 | 67% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:24 PM | 6.6 | 51.9 | 66% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:18 AM | 6.6 | 51.9 | 66% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:17 PM | 6.6 | 51.7 | 66% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:14 PM | 7.2 | 52.3 | 67% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:37 PM | 11.8 | 52.8 | 77% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:55:56 PM | 9.1 | 52.4 | 72% |