2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 11:30 PM · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
New Mexico @ Oklahoma
Predicted scoreLikely
New Mexico
17.3
Oklahoma
32.7
Oklahoma win probability: 84%
Margin (Oklahoma − New Mexico): 15.3 (80% range -4 to 35)
Total: 50.0 (80% range 28 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 10 | 28 | 0.73% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.72% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:37 PM | 15.4 | 50.2 | 84% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:45 PM | 15.4 | 49.9 | 84% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:27 PM | 15.3 | 50.0 | 84% |