2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 11:00 PM · M. M. Roberts Stadium
UConn @ Southern Miss
Predicted scoreToss-up
UConn
30.2
Southern Miss
26.7
Southern Miss win probability: 41%
Margin (Southern Miss − UConn): -3.6 (80% range -24 to 17)
Total: 56.9 (80% range 34 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.59% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.55% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:40 PM | -3.3 | 57.0 | 42% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:44 PM | -3.4 | 56.9 | 42% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:21 PM | -3.6 | 56.9 | 41% |