2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 11:00 PM · M. M. Roberts Stadium
UConn @ Southern Miss
Predicted scoreToss-up
UConn
29.2
Southern Miss
26.9
Southern Miss win probability: 45%
Margin (Southern Miss − UConn): -2.3 (80% range -24 to 18)
Total: 56.1 (80% range 31 to 82)
Actual: UConn 48 – Southern Miss 20 (margin error 25.7, total error 11.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:40 PM | -3.3 | 57.0 | 42% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:44 PM | -3.4 | 56.9 | 42% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:21 PM | -3.6 | 56.9 | 41% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:13 AM | -3.5 | 56.9 | 41% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:18 PM | -3.4 | 56.8 | 42% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:23 PM | -4.1 | 56.4 | 40% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:33 PM | -4.9 | 56.2 | 38% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:17 PM | -2.3 | 56.1 | 45% |