2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 11:00 PM · AmFirst Stadium
Georgia Southern @ Jacksonville State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Georgia Southern
26.3
Jacksonville State
27.8
Jacksonville State win probability: 54%
Margin (Jacksonville State − Georgia Southern): 1.5 (80% range -18 to 21)
Total: 54.1 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Georgia Southern 27 – Jacksonville State 31 (margin error 2.5, total error 3.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:34 PM | 4.0 | 56.0 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:43 PM | 4.1 | 55.9 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:19 PM | 4.0 | 56.1 | 60% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:16 AM | 3.8 | 56.1 | 60% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:19 PM | 3.9 | 56.2 | 60% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:20 PM | 3.9 | 55.9 | 60% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:31 PM | 5.3 | 54.4 | 63% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:20 PM | 1.5 | 54.1 | 54% |