2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 8:00 PM · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Western Kentucky @ Indiana
Predicted scoreConfident
Western Kentucky
10.5
Indiana
44.8
Indiana win probability: 99%
Margin (Indiana − Western Kentucky): 34.3 (80% range 14 to 56)
Total: 55.3 (80% range 33 to 79)
Actual: Western Kentucky 0 – Indiana 38 (margin error 3.7, total error 17.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 38 | 0.94% |
| 7 | 45 | 0.92% |
| 7 | 38 | 0.84% |
| 0 | 38 | 0.83% |
| 3 | 45 | 0.78% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:33 PM | 32.3 | 54.9 | 98% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:41 PM | 32.7 | 54.6 | 98% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:14 PM | 32.6 | 54.7 | 98% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:47 AM | 32.6 | 54.7 | 98% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:30 PM | 32.4 | 54.8 | 98% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:04 PM | 32.7 | 55.1 | 98% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:24 PM | 34.7 | 55.9 | 99% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:12 PM | 34.3 | 55.3 | 99% |