2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 8:00 PM · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Western Kentucky @ Indiana
Predicted scoreConfident
Western Kentucky
11.0
Indiana
43.6
Indiana win probability: 98%
Margin (Indiana − Western Kentucky): 32.6 (80% range 12 to 53)
Total: 54.7 (80% range 33 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 45 | 0.92% |
| 7 | 45 | 0.89% |
| 3 | 38 | 0.86% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.84% |
| 7 | 42 | 0.83% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:33 PM | 32.3 | 54.9 | 98% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:41 PM | 32.7 | 54.6 | 98% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:14 PM | 32.6 | 54.7 | 98% |