2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 8:00 PM · Williams Stadium (VA)
Ball State @ Liberty
Predicted scoreLikely
Ball State
21.0
Liberty
30.9
Liberty win probability: 74%
Margin (Liberty − Ball State): 9.9 (80% range -10 to 30)
Total: 51.9 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.83% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:34 PM | 9.9 | 52.0 | 74% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:41 PM | 9.9 | 52.0 | 74% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:14 PM | 9.9 | 51.9 | 74% |