Predicted scoreConfident
Kentucky
13.8
Texas A&M
32.0
Texas A&M win probability: 89%
Margin (Texas A&M − Kentucky): 18.2 (80% range 0 to 38)
Total: 45.8 (80% range 24 to 68)
Actual: Kentucky 31 – Texas A&M 21 (margin error 28.2, total error 6.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 31 | 0.86% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.86% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.83% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.80% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:41 PM | 12.3 | 49.2 | 78% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:40 PM | 12.2 | 49.3 | 78% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:08 PM | 12.2 | 49.8 | 78% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:41 AM | 12.1 | 49.8 | 78% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:28 PM | 12.4 | 49.9 | 79% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:42 PM | 12.3 | 49.8 | 79% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:19 PM | 15.2 | 46.2 | 84% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:11 PM | 18.2 | 45.8 | 89% |