Predicted scoreConfident
USC
38.8
Rutgers
19.3
Rutgers win probability: 11%
Margin (Rutgers − USC): -19.5 (80% range -41 to 1)
Total: 58.1 (80% range 34 to 83)
Actual: USC 42 – Rutgers 35 (margin error 12.5, total error 18.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 14 | 0.80% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.64% |
| 38 | 14 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:39 PM | -12.2 | 59.4 | 23% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:41 PM | -12.2 | 59.4 | 23% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:07 PM | -11.9 | 59.4 | 23% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:45 AM | -12.4 | 59.5 | 22% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:27 PM | -12.7 | 59.3 | 22% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:01 PM | -11.8 | 58.8 | 24% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:21 PM | -21.1 | 59.7 | 10% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:10 PM | -19.5 | 58.1 | 11% |