2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 5:00 PM · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Wyoming @ Central Michigan
Predicted scoreToss-up
Wyoming
23.8
Central Michigan
22.8
Central Michigan win probability: 47%
Margin (Central Michigan − Wyoming): -1.0 (80% range -21 to 18)
Total: 46.6 (80% range 24 to 69)
Actual: Wyoming 10 – Central Michigan 24 (margin error 15.0, total error 12.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:32 PM | 0.7 | 46.7 | 52% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:38 PM | 0.8 | 46.4 | 52% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:06 PM | 0.6 | 46.3 | 52% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:40 AM | 0.7 | 46.7 | 52% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:26 PM | 0.5 | 46.8 | 51% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:38 PM | 0.7 | 45.8 | 52% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:18 PM | -0.6 | 46.9 | 48% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:06 PM | -1.0 | 46.6 | 47% |