2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 4:45 PM · FirstBank Stadium
NC State @ Vanderbilt
Predicted scoreLikely
NC State
20.7
Vanderbilt
33.6
Vanderbilt win probability: 79%
Margin (Vanderbilt − NC State): 13.0 (80% range -7 to 34)
Total: 54.3 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: NC State 31 – Vanderbilt 35 (margin error 9.0, total error 11.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 14 | 28 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:43 PM | 9.6 | 56.2 | 73% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:38 PM | 9.6 | 56.4 | 73% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:05 PM | 9.8 | 56.2 | 73% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:39 AM | 9.7 | 56.2 | 73% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:25 PM | 9.7 | 56.3 | 73% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:38 PM | 10.3 | 56.1 | 74% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:17 PM | 16.1 | 55.9 | 84% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:06 PM | 13.0 | 54.3 | 79% |