2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 4:45 PM · FirstBank Stadium
NC State @ Vanderbilt
Predicted scoreLikely
NC State
23.2
Vanderbilt
33.0
Vanderbilt win probability: 73%
Margin (Vanderbilt − NC State): 9.8 (80% range -11 to 31)
Total: 56.2 (80% range 33 to 81)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.77% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:43 PM | 9.6 | 56.2 | 73% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:38 PM | 9.6 | 56.4 | 73% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:05 PM | 9.8 | 56.2 | 73% |