2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 4:30 PM · Camp Randall Stadium
Eastern Michigan @ Wisconsin
Predicted scoreConfident
Eastern Michigan
13.5
Wisconsin
35.1
Wisconsin win probability: 92%
Margin (Wisconsin − Eastern Michigan): 21.6 (80% range 2 to 42)
Total: 48.6 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: Eastern Michigan 10 – Wisconsin 54 (margin error 22.4, total error 15.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 31 | 0.92% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.90% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.89% |
| 7 | 38 | 0.83% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.83% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:44 PM | 17.6 | 51.3 | 87% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:38 PM | 17.4 | 51.3 | 87% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:04 PM | 17.8 | 51.4 | 87% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:38 AM | 17.5 | 51.4 | 87% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:25 PM | 17.6 | 51.1 | 87% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:37 PM | 17.8 | 51.5 | 87% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:16 PM | 18.9 | 50.5 | 89% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:05 PM | 21.6 | 48.6 | 92% |